After colder than normal temperatures the past few winters here in northeastern and central Pennsylvania, there could be some relief this winter.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released its Winter Outlook for meteorological winter (December-February) which does seem to have some good news for our area.
Temperatures across our region are expected to trend above average, according to the temperature probability forecast issued by the federal agency. You’ll notice from December through February, warmer than average temperatures are expected here and throughout much of the country.
If you had plans on heading south this winter to escape the cold, the forecast calls for cooler than normal temperatures in places like Florida and Texas.
So why does NOAA expect milder temperatures this winter?
Recently, you may have heard us talk about El Niño and the influence it may have on the upcoming winter. In a news release, NOAA states that this year “El Niño sets the stage” for the 2015-2016 winter weather.
El Niño has to deal with unusually warm temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. This year’s El Niño is one of the strongest on record.
“A strong El Niño is in place and should exert a strong influence over our weather this winter,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
We must not forget it wouldn’t be winter here in northeastern and central Pennsylvania without the precipitation. Right now, how much precipitation we receive still appears to be a bit uncertain based on the winter outlook.
Here’s a look at the precipitation outlook for December, January and February. You’ll notice wetter than normal conditions are expected in the south and out west. This probability forecast shows that our region falls under seeing “equal chances” of precipitation and also wetter than normal conditions in southern and eastern parts of the state.
It can be assumed that our region at this point falls within an area of less confidence, whereas places like Florida are expected to see a 70 percent chance of wetter than normal conditions.
We should also reiterate that El Niño isn’t the only factor that influences our weather. While this winter outlook may seem refreshing, know that winter is still weeks away, and changes could be made.
“While temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are favored, El Niño is not the only player. Cold-air outbreaks and snow storms will likely occur at times this winter. However, the frequency, number and intensity of these events cannot be predicted on a seasonal timescale.”
